00:00:04: Welcome to the Human and Technology Podcast.

00:00:07: This podcast is for anyone who develops, distributes or uses technology.

00:00:14: For all those that always have a feeling that technology overwhelms or dominates them... ...for everyone wants know how to deal with technology in everyday life.. ..for anyone want so understand what technology does to us And How we can get our lives back.

00:00:32: this podcast is for those who want to make technology sexy.

00:00:37: All the product developers, designers, UX-UI professionals, product managers, CTOs and CEOs... And it's for you!

00:00:47: My name is Dr Peter Oreska.

00:00:50: my friends call me Dr Peter.

00:00:53: I am your host.

00:00:55: ...and i'm happy that you are here.

00:01:00: Hello hello and welcome Human Technology Podcast.

00:01:07: You may hear not in my home studio.

00:01:11: I do not have my normal podcast microphone with me, i'm traveling these days and this is why the sound quality of this episode may not be as high as used but... ...I want to deliver you an episode today!

00:01:29: Second thing second remark up front.

00:01:31: You May Hear It From My Voice um.. ..I caught Me A Little Colds Um.. I Hope I Will Get Through This One Without Too Many Coughs.

00:01:40: Let's see it, otherwise I need to cut here and there a bit.

00:01:48: This today is the third episode of my analysis of the past five years on CES The Consumer Electronics Show that is conducted every January early January in Las Vegas Nevada.

00:02:11: If you missed the past two episodes, I heavily recommend that you go back and listen to other two episodes.

00:02:20: And then return here and listen this episode... I am analysing ten point five trends things i see things that I experienced over the past five years and how they changed in the past Five Years, and mean there are not independent.

00:02:41: They're totally interwoven their interrelated influence each other's.

00:02:47: But i try to organize it into ten point five Yeah issues.

00:02:54: so we have three-and-a-half left for today And yes, I will finally resolve the cliffhanger.

00:03:01: What is what does the half inside that we have?

00:03:05: We talk about electrification of mobility.

00:03:09: We talked about virtual reality and we're going to talk about the shift from single independent products two digital ecosystems.

00:03:30: it is how these five years of CES have changed me, my own perspective and my view on technology.

00:03:42: All right let's start with the electrification of mobility subheadline here.

00:03:52: when a revolution becomes boring.

00:03:54: there was time not too long ago.

00:03:56: I'm putting an electric motor into a car.

00:03:59: that was enough to call it the future.

00:04:03: EVs, batteries.

00:04:04: we talked about range or charging speed and major play in an area Tesla moved a lot forward.

00:04:13: The big question is when will electric cars replace combustion engines?

00:04:20: That specific question isn't interesting anymore not because electrification failed.

00:04:28: It's exactly the opposite.

00:04:29: it is becoming something that might be the ultimate side of success for any technology, and became normal to drive around with electric engines.

00:04:42: Just a few years ago electrification was one of the automotive industry defining trends.

00:04:48: Now remember the case connected automated shared electric.

00:04:53: That was the future A couple of years ago.

00:04:56: Many manufacturers ended the market, battery platforms placed complex power trains and suddenly an old question had a new answer.

00:05:04: Your question is who can build cars?

00:05:08: In my twenty-twenty two report I wrote something somehow provocative.

00:05:16: electric vehicles are simple.

00:05:18: anyone could build car.

00:05:20: A bit of exaggeration.

00:05:24: But the barriers to enter the market were changing.

00:05:31: The case of expertise in combustion engines and transmissions, where becoming less relevant?

00:05:38: New players arrived.

00:05:40: Smartphone companies started building cars.

00:05:46: Electric household good company suddenly started building car.

00:05:53: build new types of vehicles, e-bikes scooters motorcycles three wheelers delivery vehicles agriculture machinery construction equipment.

00:06:03: all that got an electric engine.

00:06:08: Got an E engine or and it was a totally new type of vehicle Yeah, that even included electric suitcases.

00:06:22: That you can use to ride around through airports and in twenty-twenty five Micro Mobility occupied about thirty percent of the North Hall or the Las Vegas Convention Center for the CES And some of these products were really cool somewhere.

00:06:43: some interesting and quite a few are just like Does anyone actually need this?

00:06:49: What is the question where this device is an answer for.

00:06:56: In my twenty-twenty four report of the CSI road electric cars are not a future trend anymore, Not because they had failed Because electrification had moved from a promise to an expectation.

00:07:12: and Of course challenges remain cost battery materials, charging infrastructure energy supply.

00:07:20: but nobody needs to prove anymore that electric cars could work.

00:07:26: In twenty-twenty five Honda the world's largest engine manufacturer combustion engine manufacturer presented two new battery electric vehicles and announced seven battery electric.

00:07:46: There were some changes in the past year but the main direction is correct.

00:07:52: and when even Honda sees electrification as a normal part of its own future something fundamental has changed.

00:08:04: What I also learned, an electric car it's not mobility strategy.

00:08:09: for years we confused electrification with transformation.

00:08:14: remove combustion engine install electric motor and transformations complete.

00:08:20: Not quite true.

00:08:22: A two ton electric SUV carrying one person thirty kilometers to work sitting in a parking lot for eight hours and driving back home is still a two-ton car occupying public space just an electric way.

00:08:36: it's quieter, probably more efficient.

00:08:40: It has no local CO² emissions.

00:08:43: all good but doesn't answer the important questions How much vehicle do we really need?

00:08:51: how long should We use it?

00:08:53: where does the energy come from and what resources Do, we consume?

00:08:58: And Which form of mobility makes sense?

00:09:02: for which purpose?

00:09:07: By twenty-twenty four sustainability was everywhere.

00:09:10: at CES It Was almost ubiquitous.

00:09:12: I see a two reaction recycling reusable materials energy efficiency.

00:09:18: Forvia, for example, presented seat covers that were made from components using the same material in all parts of the seat making recycling much easier.

00:09:30: It was not a humanoid robot.

00:09:31: it wasn't.

00:09:32: spectacular AI application and more meaningful probably the progress some expensive technology demonstrations nearby.

00:09:47: Of course That was greenwashing too.

00:09:50: We love talking about sustainable products, we are less enthusiastic about talking about fewer products.

00:09:57: You can reduce the environmental footprint of a smartphone But keeping your old phone for another two years will be even better.

00:10:08: Unfortunately that's difficult business model for the smart phone manufacturers.

00:10:13: CES depends on having something new to sell every year.

00:10:19: Sustainability asks an uncomfortable question.

00:10:22: Do we need a new product at all?

00:10:29: We have become extremely good and making things more efficient, but efficiency doesn't answer the question of purpose.

00:10:40: A product can be incredibly efficient doing something nobody needs.

00:10:46: that's what I like the growing diversity of electric mobility.

00:10:51: Not because electric scooters saves the planet, but because electrification allows us to match mobility solutions more closely to actual needs.

00:11:03: Sometimes I need a car sometimes a bicycle sometimes public transportation and sometimes i want to ride my Harley through The Black Forest in southwestern Germany And that should be part of the future, too.

00:11:19: Technological transformation doesn't always mean replacing everything that came before.

00:11:26: Maybe we need another acronym after case connected automated shared in electric and maybe even beyond my own one called DS Diverse intelligence Automated and software defined.

00:11:42: or may not I have invented enough for those already?

00:11:45: The important question is no longer which technology will win.

00:11:51: The question is, Which Technology Is Appropriate For Which Purpose?

00:11:58: An e-bike for a ten kilometer commute?

00:12:01: Excellent!

00:12:03: An autonomous electric vehicle on an industrial site?

00:12:06: Perfect.

00:12:07: A two tonne premium electric SUV for an eight hundred meter trip to the bakery?

00:12:12: Technically Impressive But we need to discuss the rest.

00:12:20: Electrification has won, and now a more difficult discussion begins.

00:12:25: Technology becomes mature when you start celebrating its existence... ...and start evaluating it's value.

00:12:33: So this is all not about what can be built but that's all about What should we build?

00:12:46: Next point virtual reality.

00:12:48: Yeah, maybe we don't want to live in a digital world.

00:12:51: for me one of the big buzzwords.

00:12:53: A few years ago it almost fully disappeared.

00:12:57: a Few years ago We were all supposed to move into the midiverse.

00:13:02: yeah work there shop their meet friends attend concerts and Bi-virtual property as avatars beautiful looking perfect avatarse.

00:13:15: The future.

00:13:16: apparently man living believing physical world behind and entering a digital world.

00:13:24: All we needed was large headset set of virtual reality glasses, our skeptical... And I still am sceptical.

00:13:41: Maybe the basic assumption is wrong FF to PCs after internet smartphones.

00:13:46: Virtual Reality was supposed become next major computing platform.

00:13:51: not looking at screens anymore being inside the digital world, gaming entertainment training simulation engineering remote collaboration.

00:14:01: Now virtual reality works extremely well for some of these applications but division of billions of people living in a virtual parallel universe hasn't exactly become everyday reality.

00:14:15: I don't know anymore who gets up in the morning and says hey honey i'm off to the metaverse.

00:14:23: And maybe the problem isn't the technology.

00:14:26: Maybe it's us, The humans.

00:14:29: We are physical beings.

00:14:30: we live in a physical world.

00:14:31: we move touch smell here taste and experience distance temperature proximity.

00:14:38: Then technology comes along says we have something better.

00:14:42: put this headset on?

00:14:45: Maybe that's not the most convincing value proposition Not the most Convincing use case.

00:14:56: And sometimes, absence tells the story.

00:15:00: Looking at my CES report something interesting happened and in twenty-twenty three I focused on case software HMI and autonomy.

00:15:08: Twenty four it was artificial intelligence and software defined vehicles.

00:15:12: In twenty five AI dominated everything.

00:15:15: The metaverse?

00:15:17: Hardly a major topic anymore.

00:15:20: Sometimes you recognize technology trend by noticing that people have stopped talking about.

00:15:27: But the underlying idea hasn't disappeared.

00:15:30: It has changed the direction Yeah, and did that in a direction change?

00:15:36: And on twenty-twenty five extra presented augmented reality glasses opposed to virtual reality.

00:15:42: The other concept was different.

00:15:44: I don't leave the physical world.

00:15:47: I Enhance it.

00:15:49: Why should we have to choose?

00:15:51: but when digital an analog world so maybe virtual reality was just a detour.

00:16:02: Smartphones brought digital information into our everyday lives but they also created the problem, we spent an enormous amount of time looking at a small rectangle instead of the world around us and augmented reality overlaying the analog worlds with digital information could change that.

00:16:24: Navigation and cars directly in our field of view.

00:16:26: Translations on physical signs, I look at Japan or Korea China on a sign And my VR glasses tell me what is written on the sign Instructions during repair works Assistant during assembly work.

00:16:43: So information with augmented reality appears exactly in an occasion when we need it and cars have been doing this for a couple of years.

00:16:53: Head-up displays bring information into the driver's field of view, And in twenty twenty five Saris presented a holographic head up display foil.

00:17:03: that was one my personal CES highlights.

00:17:10: The Information became spatial, contextual, situational.

00:17:17: So the Display moves beyond screen.

00:17:22: Displaying information becomes ubiquitous.

00:17:27: And then in the past year or this year AI changed everything again.

00:17:37: AR glasses, augmented reality glasses become really interesting when they understand what information I need and What i don't need?

00:17:46: Where am I?

00:17:47: ?What Am I doing?

00:17:48: ?What am I looking for?

00:17:50: A camera's capture environment.

00:17:53: artificial intelligence interprets the context as a system decides what information might be useful, perceive understand decide and if appropriate display it.

00:18:07: And I see a trap there.

00:18:08: so we could use smart glasses to push even more information into our lives.

00:18:13: emails whatsapp linkedin advertising notification likes permanently right in front of our eyes that's not A good idea.

00:18:24: Not at all!

00:18:27: AR, successful augmented reality should do the exact opposite not more information but better information At the right moment and in the right context And then just disappear.

00:18:42: In the end The best Augmented Reality devices Augmented reality glasses might be one that I simply forget.

00:18:53: Yeah, basically a glasses sit right in the middle of my face and they become part of how I look How watch our luck.

00:19:01: How is he?

00:19:02: And how others see me.

00:19:05: so there should be comfortable discreet and first of all socially acceptable.

00:19:11: then They raise questions Is it person wearing a set off AR glasses filming me?

00:19:19: is Our conversation or interaction being recorded?

00:19:23: What happens to my data in this one?

00:19:27: You remember the Google glasses.

00:19:30: They had a second attempt a few months ago and suddenly, the term glasshole came up... ...and it didn't appear by accident technical feasible.

00:19:44: but this visibility and social acceptance are two very different stories And that's why I prefer the idea of spatial computing over the mid-averse.

00:19:56: The physical and digital worlds don't have to compete, they can complement each other's.

00:20:06: For decades we try to bring humans deeper into the digital world desktop internet smartphone virtual reality mid averse.

00:20:14: now the direction is reversing.

00:20:16: .The Digital World Is Coming To Us Into Our Cars ,Our Home ,Our Clothes On To Our Body Surfaces ,Into Our Field Of View.

00:20:27: And technology doesn't have to scream, look at me!

00:20:32: It is simply there.

00:20:34: When we need it the way we needed and disappears if don't need.

00:20:38: I still want meet people.

00:20:42: Want walk through Las Vegas?

00:20:43: I want ride motorcycles sit by the sea drink an old fashion argue with bartender.

00:20:50: Life is surprisingly analogue.

00:20:54: That's a good thing.

00:20:56: Technology can and rich that life.

00:21:01: It doesn't have to replace it, maybe the metaverse version was backwards from the beginning.

00:21:07: The interesting future isn't about humans moving into a digital world.

00:21:12: its' about the Digital World learning how to fit in human lives.

00:21:26: Next form From products to ecosystem.

00:21:31: I already say with words of my friend, my speaker colleague Ilya Greshkovitz.

00:21:38: Nobody wins alone!

00:21:44: There was a time when the car was a car and TV was on TV and phone was on phone.

00:21:50: you bought product used it.

00:21:52: that's it.

00:21:54: That world is disappearing.

00:21:57: if i look at past five years of CES report see development might be more fundamental than artificial intelligence, robotics or autonomous driving.

00:22:12: Products are losing their boundaries.

00:22:20: in twenty-twenty two CES still had clearly separated areas.

00:22:26: Automotive here IOT there health over the air consumer electronics and a different whole on today's these boundaries increasingly meaningless.

00:22:36: what exactly is a car?

00:22:38: Is it vehicle?

00:22:39: probably yes Definitely yes, a computer definitely is.

00:22:43: A software product today definitely has part of an energy system and data platform.

00:22:50: that's the YES for all these.

00:22:53: In twenty-twenty three Samsung demonstrated how devices could communicate through matter their standard including products from other manufacturers refrigerator talking to something else.

00:23:07: Hooray!

00:23:10: There isn't Important shift behind this, value is increasingly created not just within products but between them.

00:23:23: Years ago an internet connected car was something special and that was the time when connectivity in itself used to be a feature.

00:23:34: yeah we have Bluetooth CarPlay Android Auto Cloud services over-the-air updates streaming and the apps.

00:23:41: today Nobody asks whether a car is connected.

00:23:46: We asked, does my digital life continue seamlessly inside?

00:23:51: A car?

00:23:53: or as somebody said to me already couple of years ago I don't want my life to end just because i'm in the car.

00:24:04: so The product car becomes an excess point too.

00:24:09: and ecosystem.

00:24:11: A smartphone is no longer just a phone, smartwatches are just to watch.

00:24:16: And the software defined vehicle increasingly becomes platform for services data entertainment and probably also digital identity.

00:24:27: In in twenty-twenty five this shift was visible among CES exhibitors.

00:24:33: technology and service companies gained space while some traditional automotive manufacturers disappeared And that creates an uncomfortable question.

00:24:46: Who owns the customer?

00:24:49: The car manufacturer, operating system programmer... ...the cloud provider and AI company.

00:24:59: Whoever controls the best HMI or human machine interface?

00:25:06: Whoever controls a relationship with humans... ...controls significant part of value creation.

00:25:19: Let's move on to the smart homes.

00:25:20: In twenty-twenty five, Samsung presented home AI connecting household devices into an intelligent network.

00:25:28: and innovation isn't the refrigerator itself.

00:25:31: it is interaction but we in different devices a system that knows my schedule ,my habits .

00:25:37: My car and my calendar.

00:25:39: That could be extremely useful or extremely annoying.

00:25:45: A few days ago I just tried to reset my stereo equipment at home because it didn't play with my streaming provider anymore.

00:25:54: At the end, i had to re-set entire thing and type in all passwords and find the wifi networks.

00:26:01: everything to zero starting from scratch.

00:26:08: Major problem here is humans are remarkably bad at being standardized.

00:26:13: we change habits We buy devices from different manufacturers.

00:26:16: We have guests, we move our houses... ...we moved to different houses and sometimes we simply want to switch on the light without an app, with out account or update.

00:26:29: Without your device is currently unavailable.

00:26:34: Connectivity alone doesn't create value.

00:26:37: Every day usability does And once again you encounter that annoying little detail The human.

00:26:50: This year, in twenty-twenty six the platform had arrived.

00:26:56: In my CES Twenty-Twenty Six report I described an industry increasingly shaped by software ecosystems Cloud services AI based business models.

00:27:09: The car is no longer at the bottom of technology stack it's on top.

00:27:14: Underneath there are chips and sensors in software and cloud infrastructure.

00:27:18: There's data, there is artificial intelligence their operating systems And suddenly the vehicle becomes an application An app.

00:27:30: for someone from the traditional automotive industry.

00:27:33: It almost insulting but it's true Yeah, and then that changes to balance of power Companies controlling the technological infrastructure gain influence over innovation, speed and value creation.

00:27:50: Traditional OEMs face a strategic risk losing technological sovereignty.

00:27:57: And you can still build excellent cars... ...and lose!

00:28:03: Hardware becomes commodity.

00:28:05: engines, transmissions chassis body structures manufacturing quality all important.

00:28:11: But what happens when customers increasingly make decisions based on software experience and AI on digital services or integration?

00:28:22: A company can build outstanding hardware while controlling only one fraction of the value creation.

00:28:29: Or more dramatically, car makers built a box which somebody else makes their money.

00:28:39: While learning is nobody can do everything alone.

00:28:41: no car manufacturer can simultaneously be that they're best developer semiconductors, AI agents, algorithms and models.

00:28:51: Cloud infrastructure operating systems batteries that they cannot do everything.

00:28:57: so we need partnerships We need platforms standards at the end And this is what I'm talking about here.

00:29:03: We need ecosystems.

00:29:06: That sounds wonderful.

00:29:08: until money enters the conversation The idea of let's build an ecosystem quickly becomes okay.

00:29:16: Who owns the customer?

00:29:18: Open ecosystems offer freedom and competition, but also complexity.

00:29:24: closed ecosystems offer tighter integration But create dependencies And I'm fully aware There is no simple answer.

00:29:39: One answer which is not a simple.

00:29:40: what a complex answer is artificial intelligence.

00:29:43: our official intelligence could become orchestrator.

00:29:47: Yeah, I might not simplify because another project just to become a product with an ecosystem it could orchestrate the entire system.

00:30:01: today I say switch on the lights start navigation set temperature to twenty one degrees centigrade.

00:30:07: tomorrow.

00:30:07: am i simply saying I'm coming home tomorrow evening and assistant plans my journey adjusts Heating checks my calendar and makes sure there is a cold beer waiting for me in the fridge.

00:30:19: Now we are talking!

00:30:22: Question here, who controls that system?

00:30:25: Google Apple Amazon Samsung an independent AI agent?

00:30:29: Me myself?

00:30:31: Convenience has a price.

00:30:35: The better an ecosystem knows me the better it can serve me.

00:30:39: That requires data.

00:30:42: Where am I?

00:30:42: what do i buy?

00:30:44: Who to communicate with?

00:30:45: What interests me?

00:30:48: A perfect digital ecosystem needs a remarkably detailed model of its use, which then leads to an important question.

00:30:59: How much autonomy are we willing trade for convenience?

00:31:04: An ecosystem should serve me and not the other way around.

00:31:08: human-centered design must go beyond good interfaces.

00:31:10: We need to design good relationships with humans in systems transparent controllable understandable open to change and preferably without turning humans into the raw material of some business model.

00:31:27: To summarize, The Future is a system.

00:31:33: five years of CES show clear development.

00:31:36: in twenty-twenty two products dominated and twenty three connectivity became absolutely important.

00:31:43: Twenty four, twenty five software AI digital services moved.

00:31:49: In twenty-six, the automotive industry was visibly shifting away from products towards platforms.

00:31:59: AI needs data.

00:32:00: Data needs connectivity.

00:32:01: sensors provide contacts.

00:32:03: Robots give AI a body.

00:32:05: AR connects digital information to physical reality.

00:32:08: everything is coming together and The more complex technology becomes the more important humans become not less important.

00:32:20: The question isn't which technology will win.

00:32:25: It's who will design the system in which all these technologies work together?

00:32:33: The future is not a product waiting to be delivered, it´s a system we are building right now.

00:32:45: Alright!

00:32:46: We're done with ten big points and the past three episodes, two days and the one before.

00:32:52: I've talked about the ten major trends i have seen over the past five years And I was said okay...I'm not as important as these technology trends but.. ..i changed too.

00:33:07: Five years ago I walked through CES differently than this year Not more slowly, yeah.

00:33:17: Sixty-three kilometers on foot in four days definitely show that I'm still doing a lot of walking there... ...I was looking for different things.

00:33:29: In the past i used to look for what is new?

00:33:32: Yeah which technology's coming?

00:33:34: Which company has something surprising and What Is The Next Big Trend?

00:33:37: And Of Course all these Things Are Still Important.

00:33:41: They All Still Interest Me!

00:33:44: I am an Engineer.

00:33:45: You never completely get rid of that and I don't want to.

00:33:50: Technology fascinates me, but fascination isn't enough.

00:33:57: in the past very often I left CES trying to predict a trends over the next twelve-to twenty four months.

00:34:07: one see two years Twenty two twenty three.

00:34:11: That suddenly became very difficult.

00:34:14: there was not a clear direction visible In twenty-four, AI became visible in twenty-twenty five.

00:34:21: artificial intelligence completely dominated it.

00:34:25: Mac.

00:34:26: then I might have said there is the trend of AI today i think slightly different.

00:34:34: There's no single future.

00:34:37: we often talk about a feature as if it were trained.

00:34:42: yeah its coming and We don't know exactly when, but you better get ready to get on board once it stops at the train station.

00:34:51: I don't believe that future works this way.

00:34:53: There are many possible futures out there.

00:34:56: Technology creates possibilities But doesn't decide which ones become reality.

00:35:01: WE as humans do!

00:35:03: I used ask what's coming?

00:35:07: Today i asked What we want.

00:35:11: That sounds similar... ...but isn't.

00:35:14: What is coming makes us observers, passive participants.

00:35:20: What do we want?

00:35:22: Makes us designers of the future.

00:35:25: Autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, generative AI smart glasses physical AI all these are possibilities and none of them is inevitable because we can isn't enough answer anymore.

00:35:47: I'm more skeptical today than I was five years ago.

00:35:53: And maybe even a little bit...I'm the uncomfortable guy, one that's pinching others!

00:36:01: In my twenty-twenty-five CES report i already asked where is the real value of software defined vehicles?

00:36:09: Who owns the data?

00:36:09: who owns the customer?

00:36:12: and how does this technology improves real people lives?

00:36:19: those Questions interested me, it still interests more than computing power.

00:36:26: Lines of codes feature counts.

00:36:30: at CES I have often seen the same sequence over and over again.

00:36:35: first somebody develops a technology then they build a product And Then They start looking for use case.

00:36:43: Finally Marketing explains to me why we couldn't possibly live without that And that makes me suspicious.

00:36:54: Not of the technology itself, it is the sequence.

00:36:59: Technology should be an answer and not a question.

00:37:07: A giant display impresses for few moments.

00:37:12: A humanoid robot doing Tai Chi may impress me little longer.

00:37:18: Then I ask so what?

00:37:20: Who benefits?

00:37:21: What problem does this solve?

00:37:24: What becomes easier, safer more human or faster?

00:37:30: That is the benefit that we get out of this.

00:37:35: Well what's its benefits?

00:37:36: yeah Is it worth additional complexity to pull into our lives?

00:37:42: and many CES products fail at test.

00:37:45: Progress no longer automatically means more.

00:37:48: More displays, more sensors, more features, more AI, more data... ...more isn't a quality metric.

00:37:55: In twenty-twenty six this became visible in automotive HMI.

00:37:59: The enormous pillar to pillar displays, the entire dashboard a piece of glass they had almost completely disappeared.

00:38:09: instead I saw smaller screens better integration and more focus on real existing use cases.

00:38:18: less... ...and better.

00:38:21: And i like that!

00:38:28: What was on the display?

00:38:29: Today I'm equally interested in what is not there.

00:38:34: Which companies are missing, which technologies have disappeared... ...which hyped up ideas has everyone stopped talking about.

00:38:46: and twenty-twenty six The absence of many automotive OEMs or car makers like the Audi's Porsche's Mercedes' of this world.

00:38:54: That that was interesting to me as some more interesting.

00:39:00: and then some of the products.

00:39:02: Absence is information, it tells us about budgets priorities uncertainty in strategy contradictions interesting me too.

00:39:13: AI artificial intelligence promises to reduce work but creates complexity.

00:39:18: autonomy promises convenience but raises questions about trust-and-control.

00:39:24: connectivity creates convenience AND dependency.

00:39:29: Digitalization promises simplicity, while physical buttons make a comeback on car dashboards.

00:39:37: And that's where the interesting questions are.

00:39:43: So at the end CS has become more of radar.

00:39:49: for me It is not a crystal ball.

00:39:50: A crystal ball supposedly tells you what will happen.

00:39:54: A radar shows whats moving What happening in environment How fast and which direction What's approaching and what's disappearing?

00:40:03: And this is how I looked at CES today as a place to identify early signals dependencies, and Shifts in power.

00:40:14: I don't expect finished answers.

00:40:17: I Don't trust people who claim to know exactly what the world will look like in twenty thirty five Especially when they have PowerPoints slides that are supposed to prove it.

00:40:30: we can develop scenarios observe signals Evaluate technologies and estimate probabilities.

00:40:37: But the future isn't an axial forecast, it is shaped by billions of

00:40:43: decisions.".

00:40:45: And so I ask very often...I asked less often what will happen?

00:40:50: And i ask more often What could happen?

00:40:53: Which possibilities should we

00:40:55: support?".

00:40:58: This has changed my work over the past five years.

00:41:00: My job cannot be to tell companies which technology represents the future.

00:41:06: AI, invest in it, metaverse stop it humanoid robots explore it.

00:41:12: this is not how strategy works today.

00:41:15: The important questions are different.

00:41:18: what does this technology mean for this particular company?

00:41:23: What value Does It Create ?

00:41:25: What problems does it solve?

00:41:28: What new Problems Does It create?

00:41:33: What happens if we invest?

00:41:35: what happens?

00:41:35: If we don't and perhaps the most uncomfortable question do We need to Do all this, and that's why I focus on understanding evaluating and prioritizing technologies.

00:41:49: And eventually someone has to decide invest stop explore.

00:41:54: Not quite as sexy as The turn technologies that will change everything in twenty-twenty seven.

00:42:00: Sorry.

00:42:02: I can't do this But my question may be more useful.

00:42:09: Companies rarely fail because they don't know enough technologies.

00:42:14: They fail, because they do not know which technology deserves their attention Their human resources and money.

00:42:27: I have worked in Human Machine Interaction for decades.

00:42:32: My perspective has broadened.

00:42:35: Usability is not enough.

00:42:36: User experience isn't enough.

00:42:38: Sometimes even human-centered design isn't enough.

00:42:40: The question is far bigger, what relationship do we want between humans and technologies?

00:42:48: Should technology replace us support us relieve us make decisions for us preserve our abilities connect us or simply leave as alone?

00:42:58: And these are no longer core sheer HMI questions.

00:43:02: These are societal questions.

00:43:06: I believe enormously in technology.

00:43:08: AI, robotics autonomy software they all fascinate me but I no longer believe that technological progress automatically means human progress.

00:43:21: But we need to lie design decision and responsibility at the very end.

00:43:32: let's look towards CES twenty-twenty seven so i'll be there in January.

00:43:36: if you are in Las Vegas as well I'd love to meet you.

00:43:42: We'll find a way, I will partner with my friends from P-Free for another year so i would have coffee soft drinks snacks a seat.

00:43:51: So feel free to contact me and we will be able make A date.

00:43:59: In twenty twenty six I went to Las Vegas To see what the future bring.

00:44:03: in twenty six that was looking For possible futures And little.

00:44:07: this little plural here makes an enormous difference.

00:44:11: Maybe autonomous vehicles will become normal, maybe private cars where you remain central.

00:44:15: Maybe AI will become our most important interface... ...maybe we'll rediscover analog interaction at the same time?

00:44:23: Maybe we all wear smart glasses and look back in twenty thirty two and laugh We don't know!

00:44:31: And that's not a problem.

00:44:33: That's an opportunity in January.

00:44:35: Are we walking through Las Vegas again?

00:44:37: I look at cars robots displays artificial intelligence and probably a few things whose purpose remains a mystery after careful consideration.

00:44:49: But I won't be looking for the future.

00:44:51: I will looking for signals contradictions missing technologies idea that create real value And developments, we might be better off stopping.

00:45:02: Most importantly, I'll be looking for possibilities because the future isn't on display at CES.

00:45:09: We only see some of its possible building blocks.

00:45:14: what we build with these building blocks is up to us.

00:45:23: All right That's the end of my little series On The Past Five Years Of The Consumer Electronics Show This CES Happening every year in early January and Las Vegas, Nevada.

00:45:39: If you like that let me know.

00:45:42: Let others know about this podcast.

00:45:45: The more listeners I have the better I'll be ranked on various platforms.

00:45:49: Give me stars thumbs ups likes.

00:45:51: whatever your favorite podcast platform provides You help to get even more visible.

00:46:00: That's it for today.

00:46:09: Thank you for spending time with me.

00:46:11: I hope to are able to take something with you and Do something for yourself.

00:46:16: that will be forever.

00:46:18: For an unknown exchange, we will find me on a LinkedIn and On my websites beta minus rusco comm And beyond minus HMI dot de.

00:46:31: write me an email under podcast at Beyond Minus hmi.de.

00:46:36: do it next time.

00:46:39: Take care and stay healthy.